Fractal Droughts Climate Projections

Resumo

Meteorological droughts will become the principal factor driving compound hot-dry events and analysis thereof is therefore fundamental with regard to understanding future climate patterns. The average citizen knows little of geometry, but it plays an essential role in the characteristics of the droughts, by means of "fractional lengths". A fractality measure based upon the Cantor set reveals consensual changes in the behavior of droughts worldwide. Most regions will undergo a slight increase in fractality (up to +10% on average), particularly associated with an acceleration of the hydrological cycle and the Hadley cell expansion, with a shift towards the higher latitudes of the tropical edge in both hemispheres. Simultaneously, the polar regions might benefit from more regular precipitation patterns. Other inequality measures, such as the indices of Gini and Monjo, showed similar results. In general terms, the earth’s climate will be more fractal in the rainfall-related patterns, which likely means that the consequences will be more catastrophic for the human population.